Published Papers
Published Papers
Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (Forthcoming)
When does Forecast-based Insurance benefit? A Study on Drought Risk Mitigation with Leah Poole-Selters, Alexa Gozdiff Spognardi, Biniam Bekele, and Erin Coughlan de Perez, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice (Forthcoming)
Paying for Expertise: The Effect of Experience on Reinsurance Demand with J. Tyler Leverty and Kenny Wunder, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol 88, Issue 3: 727-756, 2021.
Optimizing Forecast-based Actions for Extreme Rainfall Events with Jonathan Lala (lead author), Juan Bazo, and Paul Block. Climate Risk Management, Vol 34 (2021) 100374
Prediction Technologies and Optimal Adaptation
Upcoming Presentations: AERE-MEA Annual Meeting, March 22, 2025, Kansas City
Abstract: Predictions guide important adaptation responses--from treating patients in hospitals to pretreating roads before snow storm. Advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence are accelerating improvements in prediction accuracy. However, it is unclear how prediction improvements should shape optimal adaptation. I develop a theoretical model for prediction-based prevention and provide three key insights. First, better predictions lead to more intense, yet less frequent, adaptation response. Second, risk preferences matter less as improved predictions resolve more uncertainty. Third, the average adaptation declines for highly risk-averse decision-makers but may rise for less risk-averse ones. These findings highlight the need to align adaptation planning with prediction skill, especially given varying levels of trust in prediction technologies.
Weather Stations and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Historical Data in the US (with Honglin Li) (Working paper available on request)
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the effect of access to forecasts on local economic productivity in the context of agriculture and weather risk. We exploit the staggered establishment of weather stations across the US during 1870–1990 as a source of variation in access to weather forecasts. Using a stacked difference-in-difference design, our preliminary results show that access to a weather station increases the agricultural productivity in a county. As the distance of a county to the nearest station increases, the agricultural productivity decreases.
Weather Forecast Skill in the US: Patterns, Disparities, and Determinants with Tim Philippi
Implications of Forecast Improvements for Insurance Demand
Does Work-from-Home Improve Adaptation to Extreme Weather Risk? with Mark Browne and Xiao (Joyce) Lin
Assessing the vulnerability of U.S. Property Liability Insurers to Catastrophe Risk with Yuluen Ma and Yayuan Ren
Regulatory Reform and Resilience: The Effect of Certified Reinsurer Programs on U.S. Insurance Markets with Doug Bujakowski and Kyeonghee Kim
Accounting for Heterogeneous Beliefs on Forecast Skills in Forecast-Based Adaptation